Interest Rates, Global Events & What It Means for Today’s Buyers and Sellers

To help our clients navigate today’s rapidly evolving real estate landscape, Windermere Signature Properties has partnered with our trusted mortgage lenders at Generations Home Loans to provide an expert perspective on interest rates and the economic forces shaping the housing market. From global events influencing inflation to shifts in employment and bond markets, these factors directly impact mortgage rates and overall affordability. Understanding what’s driving rates today can help both buyers and sellers make informed, strategic decisions—whether that means timing a purchase, preparing to sell, or evaluating financing options with confidence.

War & Rates

The US/Israel attack on Iran led to an immediate spike in oil prices (+$12/barrel), 10-year US Treasury yields (back above 4%), and average 30-year mortgage rates (back above 6%). The expansion of the conflict to include most Gulf states (UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, etc.), and the threat posed to fuel tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz (although this is being downplayed as of this writing), increases the risk of a prolonged war.

So what does this mean for us?

Something like 25% of the world’s oil & gas supply comes from Gulf countries – and we’re seeing higher fuel prices already – which impacts our entire economy and is inflationary. 

Based on the above, how do you think the Fed will act? 

It makes them more hawkish (less likely to cut rates) because of war-driven inflation fears. Here’s what Minneapolis Fed President, Neel Kashkari, had to say just last week:

“Before Iran, it seemed like things were gently heading in the right direction. [When Russia invaded Ukraine] I was on ‘Team Transitory.’ [Inflation] was transitory. It was just much higher than we expected and much longer than we expected. Do we really want to do another ‘Transitory 2.0’?”

In other words, many Fed members will use the war as a justification for doing nothing when it comes to rates.

Mortgage rates remained in the low 6% range

The good news is that average 30-year mortgage rates have been relatively well-behaved, rising from just 5.98% to a high of 6.13%. That’s still not far from 3-year lows. This is a critical time for the residential housing market, with new listings ramping up in advance of the spring selling season. [Mortgage News Daily]

Jobs growth remains weak

In February, private employers added 66,000 net jobs, and the January figure was halved from +22,000 → +11,000 (dang revisions). So job growth rose, but over time it’s been pretty close to zero. Additionally, the wage growth premium between changing jobs and staying put narrowed to just 1.7%, the lowest premium seen in  years.  Weak employment tends to be anti-inflationary in nature … opposite of oil at this time.  This will help the bond market (mortgage rates follow the bond market) 

Bond and Mortgage Market

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, average 30-year mortgage rates only moved up slightly this week – to 6.00%. But due to the timing of survey responses, this does not appear to fully capture the sharp upward move in Treasury and Mortgage Backed Securities’ yields in response to the US/Israel-Iran war. Mortgage News Daily (where I turn to for timely market updates) is currently showing an average 30-year mortgage rate of 6.17%.

Expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts were already low before the Iran attack. Now they’re even lower.

Looking for some Inspiration?

I shared this data last week with agents I work with & clients I serve, but thought you’d appreciate seeing the graphic. In 2025, the Case-Shiller national home price index rose 1.3%. Not terribly exciting, right? But keep in mind that home prices have risen by 55% over the last 6 years! It’s very common for high growth periods to be followed by slower growth periods (whether you’re talking about home prices or stock prices). But home price growth remained positive in 2025. In fact, since 1942, home prices have increased 76 times, been flat once, and fell only 7 times. That’s a heck of a record!

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About Generations Home Loans

Our vision is to be a driving force in transforming lives through homeownership, shaping a future where every client achieves lasting financial security and generational wealth. We aim to set the standard for integrity, expertise, and meaningful community impact, building a legacy of successful clients and thriving partnerships for generations.

Generations Home Loans is a trusted mortgage provider dedicated to helping families achieve their dreams of homeownership. With a history of excellence and innovation, the organization offers tailored lending solutions to meet each client’s unique needs. Its experienced team of professionals provides personalized guidance and expert advice, empowering borrowers to build wealth and long-term stability through owning a home.

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www.generationshomeloans.com

Generations Home Loans is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender (Company NMLS #252939). Generations Home Loans has a business relationship with Windermere Real Estate.

About the Author

Dave Waldschmidt is a Certified Mortgage Advisor based in the Sacramento–Roseville region who helps homebuyers, homeowners, and real estate professionals make smart financing decisions in changing markets. Dave is known for translating complex economic trends—interest rates, inflation, and housing supply—into practical strategies buyers and sellers can actually use.

Dave works closely with top real estate professionals throughout Placer, Sacramento, and El Dorado Counties to ensure their clients receive clear guidance, competitive financing options, and a smooth closing process.

When he’s not analyzing mortgage markets, Dave enjoys spending time with his wife Sue, hosting backyard BBQs with friends, and helping clients build long-term financial security through real estate.